As the cryptocurrency market continues to experience a range-bound movement, traders and investors are closely monitoring key US economic events that could influence prices and set a directional trend. This week, three significant events are expected to shape the market: US Retail Sales, FOMC Interest Rate Decision, and US Unemployment Claims.

US Retail Sales: A Gauge of Consumer Spending

The Commerce Department’s Census Bureau will release US retail sales data on Tuesday, providing valuable insights into consumer spending trends, which account for a substantial portion of the US economy. In July, US retail sales unexpectedly surged by 1% compared to the previous month, exceeding economists’ expectations. A stable August retail sales figure would alleviate recession concerns, signaling a healthy economy and boosting confidence in riskier assets like cryptocurrencies and stocks.

FOMC Interest Rate Decision: A Highly Anticipated Event

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is set to announce its interest rate decision on Wednesday. Following the recent US Consumer Price Index (CPI) reading and other key economic data, a rate cut appears likely as inflation cools. However, the magnitude of the cut remains uncertain, with market participants eager to learn the Federal Reserve’s latest stance. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is a 59% chance of a 50 basis points (bps) rate cut and a 49% chance of a 25 bps cut.

The potential impact on Bitcoin and other risk-on assets will depend on what traders have already priced in. A 50 bps cut could surprise investors, potentially driving market volatility. In contrast, a 25 bps cut would align with expectations, likely causing a more measured response from Bitcoin.

US Unemployment Claims: A Labor Market Indicator

Preliminary jobless claims are also on the watchlist this week, providing insight into the current state of the labor market. While the job market has softened, unemployment rates remain relatively low. Job openings have dropped significantly, aligning with a more normalized market. Thursday’s data will reveal the latest progress in the US labor market. While its impact may not be as significant as other economic indicators, a rise in jobless claims could signal economic weakness, prompting some investors to turn to alternative assets, such as cryptocurrencies, as a hedge against traditional markets.

Donald Trump’s DeFi Project: A New Development

In a separate development, Donald Trump’s decentralized finance (DeFi) project, World Liberty Financial (WLFI), is set to launch on Monday. While the project’s impact on the crypto market is uncertain, it may attract attention and potentially drive interest in DeFi and cryptocurrency adoption.

Market Expectations and Potential Outcomes

As the market awaits these key economic events, analysts and traders are closely watching for potential outcomes. A 25 bps rate cut is expected to be bullish for financial assets like stocks and crypto, as it reduces the cost of borrowing money. However, a 50 bps cut could signal broader economic concerns, prompting investors to move away from riskier assets like Bitcoin.

Overall, this week’s US economic events will provide valuable insights into the state of the economy and potentially shape the direction of the crypto market. Traders and investors will be closely monitoring these events to adjust their strategies and make informed decisions.